When the schedule came out, November 7 in Columbus looked like a national title preview: Ohio State and Oregon, the preseason No. 1 and No. 2, meeting at Ohio Stadium. It is still one of the biggest games of the weekend — just not in the way anyone planned. No. 12 Ohio State (6-2, 4-1 Big Ten) hosts No. 23 Oregon (5-3, 3-2) on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS, and the loser can start making other December plans.
Why this is an elimination game
The College Football Playoff committee’s first rankings on Tuesday put Ohio State at No. 12 — technically the first team out, because No. 25 Boise State would take the fifth conference champion’s slot. Oregon sits at No. 23, also outside the bracket looking in. In the 12-team era, two losses is a problem a team can survive. Three losses is close to a death sentence, and that is exactly what the loser of this game walks away with. We walked through Ohio State’s remaining path after the rankings came out; Saturday is the game that path runs through. A Buckeye win keeps them at the front of the two-loss line with ranked chaos still to come above them. A loss, and the playoff conversation in Columbus is over before Thanksgiving.
Sayin is out again — it is Fahey’s show
Ohio State’s Wednesday availability report confirmed what last week suggested: quarterback Julian Sayin is out. The elbow injury he suffered against Indiana on October 17 has sidelined him indefinitely, and he is expected to miss at least the rest of the regular season. Before the injury, Sayin had thrown for 2,007 yards and 19 touchdowns, and the Buckeyes had one of the best passing attacks in the country.
So it is freshman Luke Fahey again. Fahey’s first start, the 30-18 loss at USC, was a mixed bag: Ohio State moved the ball in stretches, but the protection broke down repeatedly and the Buckeyes hurt themselves with 11 penalties for minus-75 yards. Oregon brings exactly the wrong matchup for a young quarterback behind a shaky line — edge rushers Matayo Uiagalelei (six sacks) and Teitum Tuioti are one of the best pass-rush tandems in the country. It does not help that starting left tackle Ian Moore is questionable. If Ohio State cannot protect Fahey early, this gets long fast.
The Jeremiah Smith problem Oregon has not solved
If there is a single matchup that can rescue Ohio State’s offense, it is Jeremiah Smith. The junior has 62 catches for 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns in eight games, and he is already the Big Ten’s all-time leader in touchdown receptions with most of two seasons still to play. The last time Smith saw Oregon, in the 2024 playoff quarterfinal, he caught seven passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns. Oregon will devote extra coverage to him all afternoon — which is precisely why the Buckeyes need a second option to show up, whether that is Brandon Inniss (questionable this week) or a ground game led by Bo Jackson’s 637 rushing yards.
Oregon is banged up, too
The Ducks are scrapping through their own version of this season. They are also down to a backup quarterback, and on Wednesday they ruled out their leading rusher, Jordon Davison (439 yards, seven touchdowns). Oregon’s offense leans on the pass — one of the top 15 passing attacks in the FBS — but it has been boom or bust: 34 points in last week’s win over Northwestern, just 10 in the loss to Illinois before that. Ohio State’s defense gets a lift with star defensive back Jay Timmons cleared to return after missing the USC game, and the Buckeye rush defense (95.8 yards allowed per game, 14th nationally) should handle what is left of Oregon’s run game.
What a win — or a loss — means
Win, and Ohio State steadies: 7-2, a ranked win on the resume, control of its own fate with the Michigan finale still ahead, and a real chance to climb into the projected bracket when the next rankings land. Lose, and it is three defeats, back-to-back Big Ten losses for the first time since 2011, and a season that opened with championship talk ends in a mid-tier bowl game. The final playoff bracket is revealed on Sunday, December 6 — Ohio State’s place in it, or out of it, will be decided largely in the next three hours of football at the ‘Shoe.
Game details
- When: Saturday, November 7, 2026, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus (Ohio State University)
- TV: CBS, streaming on Paramount+
- Stakes: Both teams are currently outside the College Football Playoff bracket. The loser almost certainly stays out for good.
