The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season landed Tuesday night, and they were not kind to Columbus. Ohio State (6-2) checked in at No. 12 — its lowest position in an opening CFP ranking since the very first one in 2014, and, under the current format, not good enough. If the playoff started today, the Buckeyes would be watching it on television.
Wait — No. 12 in a 12-team playoff means out?
Yes, and the reason is the format. Five of the twelve spots go to the highest-ranked conference champions. No. 25 Boise State projects as the fifth champion in the field, which bumps the bracket: the teams ranked 1 through 11 — Miami, Georgia, Utah, Indiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Texas, UCLA, BYU, Ole Miss and Notre Dame — plus Boise State would make up the field. Ohio State, at No. 12, is the first team out, with Tennessee (No. 13) right behind them. The final bracket is not set until Sunday, December 6, so this is a starting position, not a verdict.
Why the committee dropped the Buckeyes this far
Two losses, both on the road against ranked teams, define the resume. Texas beat Ohio State in the non-conference headliner, and last Saturday the Buckeyes lost 30-18 at USC in their first game without starting quarterback Julian Sayin — their lowest point total of the season, with no touchdown until the final two minutes. Set against that, the wins are genuinely strong: Ohio State has beaten No. 4 Indiana and No. 19 Iowa, both away from home. The committee, chaired by Hunter Yurachek, is effectively saying the losses count more than the wins right now — and that the gap to Indiana, a team Ohio State beat, is the ranking’s biggest argument.
Saturday is now a must-win
The response available to the Buckeyes starts immediately. No. 23 Oregon (5-3) visits Ohio State University‘s Ohio Stadium on Saturday, November 7, at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS. One playoff predictor (A to Z Sports) put Ohio State’s chances at 56% before the game — a win over Oregon lifts that to roughly 73%, while a third loss craters it to about 20%. A two-loss team can still make this field; a three-loss team almost certainly cannot, at least not without a conference championship.
The full path back in
The remaining schedule after Oregon is Northwestern at home, a trip to Nebraska, and Michigan at home to finish the regular season. The math from there is simple to state and hard to do:
- Win out, and Ohio State is in. A 10-2 finish with wins over Oregon and Michigan, on top of the Indiana and Iowa wins, is a resume no committee leaves out.
- The Big Ten title route. Reaching — and winning — the Big Ten championship game would claim one of the five automatic champion spots outright.
- Chaos helps, but don’t count on it. Every loss by Notre Dame, Ole Miss, BYU or Texas clears space, but Ohio State’s fate is in its own hands only while it keeps winning.
Our wider look at Ohio university football covers the rest of the state’s programs this season.
The bottom line
No. 12 stings because it is unfamiliar — Ohio State had not opened outside the committee’s top tier in a decade. But the Buckeyes’ problem is also their opportunity: the two best wins on their schedule are already banked, the hardest remaining tests are at home, and the season now has a clarity most teams would envy. Beat Oregon on Saturday, and this ranking becomes a footnote. Lose, and December 6 becomes a very long day in Columbus.
